John Cochrane plays around with some of the CBO projections and comes up with this graph which represents the long-term outlook based on their numbers. Sort of OK for the next say seven or eight years and then things get really ugly. Cochrane properly asks, “So what can adjust?”, as the scenario represented by the […]
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The Cost Of Servicing Our National Debt
Posted by Tom Lindmark on January 9th, 2011
Here’s an interesting number from the WSJ Economics blog — 3.4%. That’s what the CBO estimates will be the share of GDP that we pay in interest every year on the national debt in 2020. Thanks to the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep interest rates extremely low, the U.S. government is currently getting a very […]
An Interview With Paul Ryan
Posted by Tom Lindmark on December 12th, 2010
An interesting interview of Rep. Paul Ryan from the WSJ. He talks about the recent agreement on taxes, the Deficit Commission recommendations (he voted no) and health care. You might find his views on fiscal issues and the 2012 elections particularly intriguing. You can love or hate the guy but you have to pay attention […]
ISM And Housing Looking Better
Posted by Tom Lindmark on September 1st, 2009
Once again this morning a couple of positive economic developments, or at least the news sounds good. The National Association of Realtors reports that their Pending Home Sales Index, a forward looking measure of contracts signed, was up 3.2% in July to 97.6 from 94.6 in June. The index was at 87.1 in July 2008. […]
Arnold Kling: Recovery Will Be Fast
Posted by Tom Lindmark on July 13th, 2009
How about a little sunshine for a change. Keep in mind that this is opinion and flies in the face of a lot ofcurrent data but Arnold Kling is a pretty level-headed economist. Writing in The Atlantic he makes the following observations: Sudeep Reddy takes note of an important fact about the current recession: 1. […]
Another Flight To Treasuries – Avoiding A Summer Storm?
Posted by Tom Lindmark on July 8th, 2009
Just a few quick thoughts, so move on along if you find this irrelevant. The auction of 10-year bonds today was by all accounts a home run. Investors gobbled up the issue, led by central banks and the yield on the bond dropped precipitously. Remember, several weeks ago it was at 4% and the talk […]
Lots Of Questions About Where The Economies Are Headed
Posted by Tom Lindmark on May 10th, 2009
Where is this economy and stock market going to go from here? Is it a suckers rally or just the stock market doing what it always does — discounting future growth? Here’s a trio of bearish views from the U.K. and one from this side of the pond. Perma-bear Ambrose Evans-Pritchard pulls out a bunch […]
