Ignore This Month’s Employment Report

Another month, another jobs report. According to economists the report is bleak, adversely impacted by weather, full of unseen positives and, of course, going to either cause the Fed to delay tapering or stay the course. Given the fact that the reliability of the data is tenuous at best (the payroll survey and household survey show contradictory trends) any conclusion about the import of the report has as good a chance as any other of being either right or wrong. Here’s the best advice I’ve seen today.

We suggest looking at 12-month average trends in the household survey because of the monthly volatility in the report and we note that the number of unemployed has dropped by 2.1 million since January 2013, while employment has risen by 1.8 million. This suggests the drop in the unemployment rate from 7.9% to 6.6% is not just a result of falling participation. –RDQ Economics Chief Economist John Ryding and Senior Economist Conrad DeQuadros

 

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