It would be a significant understatement to say that President Obama has had a bad Fall. From the disaster of the elections to his bizarre press conference announcing the tax deal to calling in Bill Clinton for support he looks more and more like a man unable to get a grip on the situation much less turn things in his favor. All of which has led to talk, certainly premature, that he looks like a one-term president and may face a primary challenge.

The talk is coming from lots of different places including Progressives who seem most upset by the tax compromise. Peggy Noonan, no Progressive she, wrote this weekend that no one from the left wing of the party could possibly win a presidential election but there exists one Democrat who could successfully challenge Mr. Obama and at the same time capture the presidency.

There is only one Democrat who could possibly challenge Mr. Obama for the nomination successfully and win the general election, and that is Hillary Clinton. Who insists she doesn’t want to.

All of this makes for interesting punditry but articles in the Washington Post and NYT both make a forceful argument as to why there won’t be a challenge”

From the NYT:

When these progressives refer to themselves as Mr. Obama’s base, all they see is themselves. They ignore polls showing steadfast support for the president among blacks and Latinos. And now they are whispering about a primary challenge against the president. Brilliant! The kind of suicidal gesture that destroyed Jimmy Carter — and a way to lose the black vote forever.

And from the WaPo:

Make no mistake, however: If the left costs Obama his presidency in 2012, the Democratic Party as a whole will lose out.

Sabotage the nation’s first black president and the Democratic Party might as well bid farewell to its most loyal base of supporters: African Americans.

One could argue that the best thing that could happen for both the Democratic Party and African-Americans might well be a reduction in the absolute dependence of each upon the other. For the time being, however, that is not likely to occur and, for better or worse, the party is locked into Barack Obama as their 2012 candidate.