It rarely pays to be contrarian. For the most part trends go in the same direction for some time – that’s why they’re called “trends”.  Whether it’s real estate prices, credit card debt, Treasury issuance, or Croc sales, they can continue along implausibly for far longer than you might think, sane and right-thinking and sober-minded sort that you are.

That’s the opening paragraph from a really good bit of thinking and writing on the part of Paul Kedrosky. You owe it to yourself to take a couple of minutes and take in his thoughts.