Revised Third Quarter GDP Predictions

Interesting collection of third quarter GDP forecasts from the WSJ Real Time Economics blog:

Analyst Q3 – Prev. Q3 – Revised
Credit Suisse 1.3% 2.0%
Deutsche Bank AG 0.0% 2.0%
J.P. Morgan 2.5% 3.0%
Moody’s 1.1% 1.6%
Morgan Stanley 1% 3%-4%
UBS 2.0% 2.5%
Wells Fargo 2.2% 3.0%

Throw in C4C and a couple of other positive developments and it could be a blowout quarter. It wouldn’t be all that unusual given the depth of the recession. Historically, deep ones tend to be followed by pretty robust recoveries.

It will present an interesting problem for the administration. They will want to crow about things turning around but with a likely unemployment rate in excess of 10% they can’t really say much. In fact, until that number turns around the reality for most Americans is going to be one of extreme economic duress.

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