Latest Case-Shiller Report Is More Of The Same

If you want to keep your blogging license, you have to report the Case-Shiller monthly numbers. So dutifully from the WSJ Real Time Economics blog, here is the latest.

The National Index, which is released quarterly and covers a broader area than the monthly 20- and 10-city indexes, posted a 19% drop in the first quarter from a year earlier and a 7.5% decline from the fourth quarter.

In the 20-city index, no area experienced year-over-year price gains, the twelfth straight month that has happened. However, three cities managed to avoid month-to-month declines. Charlotte and Denver posted modest increases, and prices in Dallas were flat.

And here is the 20 city results:

About the numbers: The Case Shiller indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000. So a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the metro market.)

Home Prices, by Metro Area  


Metro Area    March 2009    Change from February    Year-over-year change   
Atlanta 104.89 -1.7% -15.7%
Boston 145.83 -2.0% -8.0%
Charlotte 119.3 0.3% -9.3%
Chicago 122.34 -3.1% -18.6%
Cleveland 96.86 -0.9% -9.0%
Dallas 112.38 0.0% -5.6%
Denver 120.35 0.1% -5.5%
Detroit 70.98 -4.9% -25.7%
Las Vegas 116.44 -3.8% -31.2%
Los Angeles 160.88 -1.4% -22.3%
Miami 148.87 -3.5% -28.7%
Minneapolis 109.12 -6.1% -23.3%
New York 173.35 -2.5% -11.8%
Phoenix 106.83 -4.5% -36.0%
Portland 147.68 -2.1% -15.3%
San Diego 144.56 -1.5% -22.0%
San Francisco 117.77 -2.2% -30.1%
Seattle 149.03 -2.0% -16.4%
Tampa 141.37 -2.7% -22.4%
Washington 166.01 -1.2% -18.4%
As you can see, from a macro basis it’s another weak report.
Frankly, there’s so much divergence among markets and within markets that I’m not sure we can derive all that much from this. Certain sectors of selected markets nationwide are booming while other sectors that had previously shown some staying power are beginning to crumble. The takeaway from all of that, at least for me, is that the market isn’t organically strong but it’s not in free fall either. 
Sounds like circumstances that argue for a long slow recovery.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Leave a Reply