Hard To See A Real Estate Bottom Based On This Data

HousingWire is out with some statistics that tell a continuing grim tale on foreclosures.

Among the recent data sets:

  • February delinquencies are at 8.37%. Non-agency jumbos showed the biggest delinquency gains.
  • Foreclosure inventories showed the largest monthly increase in February since December 2007. The foreclosure rate increased 8.2% over January and 75% year-over-year to 2.23%. Foreclosure sales trended lower due to various moritoria but during the two week period from January 31 to February 13 when Fannie and Freddie’s moratoria were not in force, sales surged.
  • FHA first payment defaults surged and reached an historical high when measured by volume. However, when you factor in the historical origination highs at FHA, the first payment defaults do not show an increasing trend. Still it is a bit disconcerting that high numbers of first payment defaults are occurring in an environment that is supposed to feature more conservative underwriting.
  • Refis are apparently concentrated among higher FICO owners and those that are current on their mortgage. So far, government programs are not having an appreciable effect on moving troubled borrowers to performing status.
  • Recidivism rates for modified loansĀ are still above 50%.

To be charitable, it’s too soon to expect the newly announced mortgage initiatives to show any impact on the foreclosure or delinquency numbers. That being said, the situation at least up to now appears to still be on a downward trend.

Sales may be up due to affordability and investor interest. It looks like they can expect to see a lot more deals for some time to come.

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