The Beijing Real Estate Disaster

Here is an absolutely stunning item from China Financial Markets:

By Rodman’s calculations, 500 million square feet of commercial real estate has been developed in Beijing since 2006, more than all the office space in Manhattan. And that doesn’t include huge projects developed by the government. He says 100 million square feet of office space is vacant — a 14-year supply if it filled up at the same rate as in the best years, 2004 through ‘06, when about 7 million square feet a year was leased.

…To its credit, the government recognized in 2007 that the real estate market was headed toward a bubble, economists say. In an attempt to make real estate more affordable, restrictions were introduced on ownership of second homes and on foreign home buyers. But the measures came too late, accelerating the crash of an already weakening market.

The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics reported this month that housing sales in the city dropped 40% last year. Chinese economists have predicted that housing prices will drop 15% to 20% in Beijing this year. Shanghai has experienced a similar decline.

There is a lot more on the blog about the property market as well as the banking system and what’s driving the Chinese stock markets. Fascinating stuff. Also very hard to reconcile with my Western concept and prejudices about what constitutes a viable economy.

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