Wells Fargo Says Recession Ends In Six Months

Wells Fargo had a little bit of feel good Christmas news for everyone today. They announced that the recession will end in the third quarter of 2009 with the consumer leading the way out.

What is shaping up as the deepest and longest recession since the 1930s will end in the second half of 2009, Wells Fargo’s senior economists predicted during the company’s annual economic forecast teleconference Thursday — and the housing sector may blaze the way, according to Dr. Scott Anderson, senior economist for Wells Fargo & Company.

“One bright note is that the sector that led the economy into this morass is about to turn the corner, perhaps as soon as this summer, and will start to lead us out,” Anderson said in the report released by Wells Fargo Friday.

The ongoing impact of $2 trillion in government stimulus, with other factors such as pent-up consumer demand and returning consumer confidence, will finally lead to a turnaround, and the third quarter of next year will be “better than expected” by many, said Dr. Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist of Wells Capital Management.

In a unique analogy, Paulson said “it’s like you’re at a cookout and you’re trying and trying to get your charcoal going and you keep squirting on lighter fluid and all of a sudden it goes ‘poof!’”

If you would like a bit more sober analysis you might want to check out this discussion on Tech Ticker. It’s focused on the consumer as well and draws radically different conclusions about the future than Wells Fargo.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

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